Dual Discharge Approach to Accessing Assimilative Capacity: Probabilistic Analysis and Management Application

A dual discharge strategy has been proposed for management of the effluent from the Syracuse Metropolitan Treatment Plant (Metro). The approach involves routing the discharge to the Seneca River when assimilative capacity is available there and to Onondaga Lake when it is not. Application of a deterministic modeling approach has demonstrated that the dual discharge strategy is effective in meeting water-quality standards/goals in both the river [dissolved oxygen (DO)] and the lake [total phosphorus (TP)] under summer average conditions of river flow and upstream boundary condition DO. Here, that analysis is extended to include a probabilistic treatment of the impact of natural variability in river flow and DO boundary conditions on the feasibility of this management option. Model simulations, incorporating these key sources of system variability, indicate that the dual discharge strategy will meet the lake management goal for TP ～ 94% of the time, with no attendant violation of river DO standards. Excursions from the lake TP goal, occurring ～ 6% of the time, range from 1–5?μg?L?1, are within the range of uncertainty in indicators applied in identifying trophic status. This novel management option is compared with an in-lake discharge alternative in terms of technical and economic feasibility and public acceptance of resultant water quality. Additional management actions, recommended to accompany implementation of the dual discharge strategy, are discussed.