A refined statistical approach to thermal fatigue life prediction

Finding new applications for ceramic materials requires a better knowledge of thermal fatigue behaviour. However, result-scattering inherent to thermal fatigue and duration of a thermal fatigue cycle lead to a lack of experimental results. For these reasons, we have developed a new approach that permits the determination of a relevant stress intensity factor exponent n with a minimum testing sample number. From knowledge of the distribution function of artificial cracks, the analytical formula of the failure probability F(N) can be completely determined. Thus, it is possible to calculate n from a correlation of F(N) with experimental results obtained for only one temperature difference. Correlations between theoretical curves F(N) and experimental results, conducted for two temperature differences, lead to the same value of n. This and the good agreement between the experimental points and the theoretical curves validate this new approach.