基于空间信息技术的城镇化生态风险预警研究——以南充市为例

科学的生态风险预警体系是准确评价城镇化过程风险状态与变化趋势的根本前提,本文应用空间信息技术,在遥感影像解译的基础上,提取空间信息、量化生态指标,结合社会、经济统计数据,构建以压力-状态-响应为框架的生态风险预警指标体系,以镇域为空间单元预测南充市生态风险警情的空间分布格局。结果表明,现有发展模式下,在预测时期内南充市生态风险会在人为调控下降低,但是在接近人类调节所能达到的生态阈值后,资源的严重短缺会使南充市的生态风险维持在一个相对稳定的高水平状态,因此急需对城镇发展模式做出合理调整。

STUDY ON ECOLOGICAL RISK WARNING OF URBANIZATION BASED ON SPATIAL INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: A CASE STUDY OF NANCHONG CITY

A scientific ecological risk warning system is the fundamental premise of accurately evaluating the risk and trend of urbanization. Based on the RS and GIS technologies and combining the interpretation of remote sensing images, the spatial information, quantified ecological indicators, and the social and economic statistical data, this paper establishes an ecological risk warning indicator system with the pressure-state-response framework and predicts the distribution of ecological risks in Nanchong with town as a spatial unit. The results show that under current development pattern the ecological risks will decrease over the forecasting period by intentional regulation, but when closing to the ecological threshold that human being could handle, the ecological risks in Nanchong will remain at a high level and in a relatively stable state because of the serious resource shortage. Therefore the development pattern of urbanization should be adjusted as soon as possible.