基于蒙特卡罗法与赌轮规则的系统维修时间仿真模型研究

维修时间是系统维修性的重要指标，是进行系统维修性预计分配评估和验证的基础。研究了传统的维修性定量分析模型，分析了维修性定量分析模型在实际应用中的局限性，阐述了用蒙特卡罗法进行系统维修时间仿真的一般方法，提出了基于赌轮规则的维修路径选择算法，建立了系统维修时间仿真模型。结合某电源系统给出了应用实例，结果表明，建立的系统维修时间仿真模型对单个故障和多个故障引起的系统失效问题的维修时间仿真均可适用。

Research on System Maintenance Time Simulation Model Based on Monte Carlo Method and Roulette Rule

The system maintenance time is an important index of maintainability, and it is the base of system maintainability prediction, allocation, evaluation and compliance. Traditional maintainability quantitative analysis model was studied, and its deficiencies were analyzed. The generalized method of maintenance time simulation based on Monte Carlo method was described, maintenance route choice algorithm based on roulette rule was given, and the system maintenance time simulation model was built. At last, combined with an electrical power system an application instance is given, the results indicate that the model is applicable for system failures which are caused by both single fault and multiple faults.