基于空间实体的传染病蔓延模拟建模研究

提出了一种基于空间实体的传染病元胞自动机模型，基于该模型，在GIS环境中建立了传染病蔓延的可视化模拟程序，并通过模拟算例分别给出了局部传染和全局传染两种典型传播行为的模拟结果。对模拟结果的分析表明，采用符合传染病流行特征的空间相关性模式能够得到更合理的模拟结果。通过结合GIS的空间数据可视化和分析功能，建议的元胞自动机模型能可视化展示传染病蔓延过程，察明影响传染病传播过程的关键参数，评估特定干预措施（如改善卫生条件、隔离感染者、接种疫苗等）的效果，获取疾病的空间分布信息和统计信息，为传染病的防治决策提供科学的依据。

Simulation of spread of infectious diseases based on geo-entity

A geo-entity based cellular automata model of infectious diseases is presented.Through the model the authors develop visual simulation program in GIS environment,and give out the simulation results of two typical spread dynamics of local contagion and global contagion(due to the existence of roads).The analysis for the results show that the reasonable results can be gained with neighbor patterns suitable for the epidemiological characteristics.Coupled with the functionalities of spatial analysis and visualization of GIS,the proposed cellular automata model can visualize the epidemic procedure of infectious diseases,ascertain the key parameters that affected the spread of diseases,evaluate the effect of some interventions(such as vaccination,isolation and so on),and calculate the information of spatial distribution and statistics of epidemics.Consequently,provide decision makers with scientific clues.