新能源极端出力特性及典型电力电量平衡场景研究

随着新能源发电占比的增加，电力系统的电力电量平衡呈现不确定性强、电力过剩/短缺交替出现等特征，给电力系统的供电可靠性带来了严重的影响。基于新能源出力实际运行特性和未来电源发展趋势，研究了含水电的新型电力系统的典型电源结构场景，并以此为基础，建立了电力电量平衡量化分析模型。通过算例结果量化了未来新能源发展场景下的典型电力电量平衡场景及系统灵活调节能力的需求，分析了新能源极端低/高出力对电力平衡的影响。研究可为我国新型电力系统构建提供决策参考。

A Study on the Characteristics of Renewable Energy Extreme Output and Typical Power and Energy Balancing Scenarios for New Type Power Systems

As the proportion of renewable energy generation increases， the power balance in electricity systems exhibits characteristics of strong uncertainty and short-term power surplus/shortage， which has serious impacts on the reliability of power supply. This paper， based on the actual operating characteristics of renewable energy output and future trends in power source development， investigates typical power source structure scenarios in the new type power system containing hydro power. On this basis， a quantitative analysis model for power and energy balance is established. The typical electricity balance scenarios and the demand for flexible system regulation ability in future new energy development scenarios are quantified through numerical examples， and the impact of extreme low/high output of new energy on electricity balancing is analyzed. This research can provide decision-making references for the construction of new type power systems in China.