基于小波分析和灰色模型的用电量预测

月度用电量同时具有增长性和季节波动性的二重趋势，针对月度用电量的这一变化特点，提出了一种基于小波分析和灰色预测模型的用电量预测方法，同时考虑春节影响因素，结合移位修正法对1月份和2月份的用电量进行修正。经过实例分析和计算，结果表明该方法有较高的预测精度，具有较好的适用性和可行性。

Electricity Consumption Forecasting Based on Wavelet Analysis and Gray Model

The monthly electricity consumption possesses dual properties of increase and seasonal fluctuation simultaneously. For the change characteristics of the monthly electricity consumption, a forecasting method based on wavelet analysis and gray model for electricity consumption is proposed in this paper. The electricity consumption in January and February is modified by shift correction method for the effect of the Spring Festival. The forecasting results indicate that this forecasting method improves the results accuracy, and therefore it is of high serviceability and the feasibility.