实物期权法在碳酸盐岩油藏滚动开发经济评价中的应用

碳酸盐岩油藏地质成因复杂,储集层特殊的孔缝洞三重介质结构,导致地质储量评估困难,流体流动规律复杂,钻井成功率低,不确定性及投资风险增大,现场采用滚动勘探开发。传统净现值法为常用的经济评价方法,消极对待投资环境不确定性,只能对整个投资回收期进行评价,存在很大的局限性。为此,本文首次引入实物期权法,对传统净现值法进行改进,结合碳酸盐岩滚动开发特点,建立了基于实物期权法的碳酸盐岩油藏滚动开发经济评价新方法。实例计算结果表明:传统净现值法未考虑不确定性带来的期权价值,低估了投资项目实际价值,新评价方法弥补了这一缺陷,且可以对每个阶段的投资进行价值评价,提高了管理决策的灵活性。

Application of real option method on economic evaluation of carbonate reservoirs on rolling development

Complicated geological origin and special triple medium of carbonate reservoirs result in hard evaluation of original oil in place, complex rules of multiphase flow, and low success rate of drilling. For the high uncertainty and investment risk, rolling development is often used on site. The traditional net present value method is widely used in economic evaluation, but it has big limitations, such as treating the uncertainty of investment environment negatively, and only evaluating the profit of the whole payback period. So real option method is first introduced in this paper to modify the deficiency of net present value. Combined with the features of rolling development of carbonate reservoirs, a new economic evaluation method based on real options is built. A calculation example is given, which shows that the new method based on real options is more precise than the net present value method on economic evaluation of carbonate reservoirs. The net present value method underestimates the true value of an exploration project, for not considering the option values resulted from uncertain invest environment. The new method based on real options makes up for this deficiency, evaluates the profit of each stage, and improves the flexibility of management decision.