乘客出行距离分布对轨道线网内公交竞争力的影响

从城市建设用地不断扩张的角度出发，研究城市居民出行距离分布变化对高密度轨道线网影响下的长距离穿越式公交线路竞争力的影响. 分析城市居民出行距离的变化趋势，提出公交站点选择概率的计算方法，建立基于Logit-SUE的公共交通网络客流分配模型，研究区域内居民平均出行距离和居住分散性系数对长距离穿越式公交线路竞争力及各站点选择概率的影响. 结果表明：在城市扩张趋势下，居民平均出行距离存在逐渐增大的趋势，轨道交通方式的优势逐渐突显，长距离穿越式公交线路竞争力逐渐减弱；公交线路各站点选择概率逐渐减小，且线路中心区站点对平均出行距离的灵敏性相对线路边缘区站点较低. 随着城市的不断扩张，居住分散性系数存在逐渐减小的趋势，分散性系数越小，居民居住地分布越集中，长距离穿越式公交线路的选择概率越小，竞争力越弱. 随着乘客居住地分布由“小而分散”向“大而集中”转变，长距离穿越式公交线路各站点选择概率存在逐渐减小的趋势.

Influence of passenger trip distance distribution on competitiveness of bus lines in urban rail transit network

The influence of trip distance distribution of passengers on the competitiveness of long bus lines was explored, from the perspective of continuous expansion of urban construction land. A calculation method to describe the choice probability of a bus stop was presented and a passenger flow assignment model based on Logit-SUE applied in the competitive public transit network was established. Then the influences of average passenger trip distance and residence dispersion coefficient on the choice probabilities of the bus line and the bus stops were explored. Results showed that average passenger trip distance had the trend of increasing with the continuous expansion of the city, and the competitiveness of long through-type bus lines decreased gradually since the urban rail transit was more suitable for long distance trips than the bus transit. The choice probability of each bus stop decreased as average passenger trip distance increased. The choice probabilities of the bus stops located in the center area of the line were less sensitive to the change of average passenger trip distance compared with that in the marginal area of the line. The expansion of the city led to the decrease of residence dispersion coefficient, and the competitiveness of long through-type bus line decreased accordingly. The choice probabilities of the bus stops decrease gradually with the distribution of passengers' residential locations changes from " small and scattered” to " large and concentrated”.