永定河流域径流变化特征及影响因素分析

根据永定河流域石匣里站、响水堡站和官厅水库站1956年-2003年的年径流资料,应用Mann-kendall检验法、Pettitt检验法、滑动T检验和小波分析法等方法分析了永定河流域年径流量的趋势性、周期性及突变特征,并从气候变化及人类活动两方面分析其影响因素。结果表明永定河流域年径流量一直处于显著下降趋势中,存在27(28)年的第一主周期和20(21)年的第二主周期;1982年-1983年径流量发生突变,突变前后变化较大。径流量变化的主要影响因素是人类活动,如土地利用、闸坝工程建设以及地下水过度开采等;气候变化对径流量也有一定的影响。

Analysis of characteristics of Rainfall-Runoff variations and its influencing factors for the Yongding River basin

Using the recording of runoff series of Shixiali, Xiangshuibao, Guanting reservoir gauge station in Yongding River basin among 1956-2003, Mann-kendall test, Pettitt test, Moving-T test and Wavelet analysis are applied to characterize the runoff trend, periodicity and mutation, the influencing factors are discussed as climate change and human activities. The results showed that 1) annual runoff of Yonding River Basin was declining significantly among 1956-2003, 2) it had a major period of 21-year, and 3) runoff varied abnormally in 1982-1983. The variations of runoff were mainly influenced by human activities like land use, dam construction and groundwater exploitation, climate change also has an impact on the runoff decline.