导弹武器系统可靠性评估的Bayes方法

在小子样前提下, 经典统计方法得到的可靠性置信下限过于保守; 传统Bayes方法虽考虑了相关或相似装备的试验信息, 但却忽略了它们之间的差异.通过引入继承因子, 合理地考虑了系统在设计和改进过程中的各种信息, 进而把继承因子看作随机变量, 得到了系统可靠性的验后密度函数.不仅考虑了相关装备的试验信息, 同时还考虑了系统之间的差异.仿真结果表明, 此方法的评估结论是合理的.

Study on Bayes Evaluation for Reliability of Missile Weapon System

When the number of test data is few, the lower fiducial limit of system reliability computed by classic statistics method is too conservative. And traditional Bayes method ignores the difference of test information of old similar equipment. The concept of inherit factor is introduced, which includes both test information and their difference. And by considering inherit factor as a random variable, the posterior density function of system reliability is acquired. It is proved reasonable by the result of emulational data.