俄罗斯-前苏联石油产区的战略接替及其启示

单独油气田的生命周期是有限的,而油气生产的持续发展要靠两个接替:一是战术接替,即老油气田(区)内的潜力挖掘与增储上产;二是战略接替,即新领域、新类型、新层系,特别是新油气产区的开拓等。沙俄-前苏联-俄罗斯石油产区经历了从第一、第二到第三巴库的紧凑接替,为我国产区战略接替研究提供了实际案例。对前苏联解体之前和之后产量起伏的分析表明:为解国内政治-经济之困和扩充军备之需而剥夺了石油工业进行战术战略接替所必须的投资是影响其持续发展的首要原因。如果不改变俄罗斯目前的政策,实行改革开放,从国内国外两方面大力筹集资金就难以保障其石油工业的持续发展,难以保障出口增长,也就难以实现其"油气富国"的初衷。石油生产的客观规律要求我们增强进行战术和战略接替的自觉性和主动性,以不断开拓的"进攻"去实现石油工业的持续发展。基于上述分析,最后提出实现战略接替的必备条件: 从实际情况出发提出的战略性开拓新思路,与目标艰难条件相适应的勘探开发新技术,投资的保障和一定的时间周期。

Strategic replacement of oil producing area in Russia-former Soviet Union and its enlightenment

The life cycle of a single oil/gas field is limited,therefore the sustainable production of oil and gas relies on two replacements: the first is tactic replacement,i.e.reserves and production growth in mature oil/gas field (area);the other is strategic replacement,i.e.frontier exploration and development including new domains,new reservoir types,new plays.From Tsarist Russia to the former Soviet Union and to Russia,oil producing areas experienced a close replacement from the first to the second and to third Baku,which provides a good case study for the research on the strategic replacement of production area in China.The analysis of oil production change before and after the breakup of former Soviet Union demonstrates that transferring investment needed for the tactic and strategic replacement from oil industry to other political and economic areas is the major factor influencing the sustainable development of its petroleum industry.If Russia do not reform,open-up and raise enough funds from both domestic and abroad channels now,it will be hard to guarantee the sustainable development of oil industry,the increasing of oil export and the realization of the original objective of "enriching country via oil and gas".The oil production objective rules require us to strengthen the willingness and activeness of tactic and strategic replacement,and continue to "aggressively" realize the sustainable development of oil industry.Finally,the paper proposes the prerequisite to realize strategic replacement: new strategic exploration concept based on the reality,new exploration and development technologies adapted to the complex play and hard conditions,investment guarantee and certain time cycle.