考虑单峰分布的电热综合能源系统风险调度

不确定可再生能源并入电热综合能源系统后将引发系统运行风险，而通过合理量化风险，实现风险可控性和调度经济性平衡是电热综合能源系统风险调度的关键。依据随机风电功率的单峰分布特性构建矩模糊集并以此刻画风电功率的不确定性，同时采用分布鲁棒机会约束方法来刻画系统的运行风险，进而建立了电热综合能源系统的分布鲁棒风险调度模型。在此基础上，从风险发生概率和经济成本的角度，提出了评估不确定风电功率引发运行风险的量化指标：均值风险概率和风险调度成本。最后，以改进的巴厘岛电热综合能源系统为例进行算例分析，验证了所提模型及其风险评估指标的可行性和有效性，并给出了电热综合能源系统的最优调度决策。

Risk dispatching of electricity-heat integrated energy system considering unimodal distribution

The uncertain renewable energy integrated into the electricity-heat integrated energy system will lead to the operation risk of system, while balancing the risk controllability and dispatching economy through quantifying risk reasonably is the key of risk dispatching of electricity-heat integrated energy system. The moment ambiguity set can be constructed by the unimodal distribution characteristic of stochastic wind power to describe the uncertainty of wind power. Meanwhile, the distributionally robust chance constraint method is adopted to describe the operation risk of system. Furthermore, the distributionally robust risk dispatching model of the electricity-heat integrated energy system is built. On this basis, from the perspective of risk occurrence probability and economic cost, the quantitative indices of mean risk probability and risk dispatching cost using for assessing the operation risk caused by the uncertain wind power are proposed. Finally, the modified Barry Island electricity-heat integrated energy system is taken as an example to carry on the case study analysis, which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model and the risk assessment indices. Moreover, the optimal dispatching strategy of the electricity-heat integrated energy system is given.