考虑负荷不确定性与运行可靠性的综合能源系统资产利用效率分析

针对当前多种能源耦合程度不断加深背景下,综合能源系统资产利用效率评估方法的研究亟待开展,且对于综合能源系统运行状态的分析未考虑故障运行状态等问题,本文提出了考虑负荷不确定性与运行可靠性的综合能源系统资产利用效率分析方法。首先,构建了表征系统终端负荷不确定性的模型;其次,分别以系统资产利用效率以及系统运行可靠性作为评估系统正常运行以及故障运行状态的指标,对其评估方法进行研究,并采用隶属度函数将不同量纲的指标进行结合;最后,通过实际算例仿真,具体分析了综合能源系统全年及典型日的运行状态,并分析了负荷不确定性对系统资产利用效率及运行可靠性产生的影响,从而验证本文所提理论方法的有效性与适用性。

Asset Utilization Efficiency Analysis of Integrated Energy System Considering Load Uncertainty and Operation Reliability

In view of the current fact that under the background of the deepening of the coupling degree of various energy sources,the research on the evaluation method of asset utilization efficiency of integrated energy system needs to be carried out urgently,and the analysis of the operation status of integrated energy systems does not take into account the faulty operation status,etc.,this paper proposes an integrated energy system asset utilization efficiency analysis method considering the load uncertainty and operation reliability.Firstly,a mathematical model that characterizing the uncertainty of the terminal load is constructed;Secondly,the system asset utilization efficiency and system operational reliability are used as indicators to evaluate the normal operation and fault operation status of the system,and the evaluation method is studied,and the indicators of different dimensions are combined by the membership function;Finally,through actual case simulation,the operation status of the integrated energy system throughout the year and typical days are specifically analyzed,and the uncertainty of load on the system asset utilization efficiency and operation reliability are analyzed.Thus the effectiveness and applicability of the theoretical methods mentioned in this article are verified.