概率-非概率混合结构体系失效概率的区间分析

在结构的非概率可靠性方法和概率-非概率混合可靠性模型的基础上，提出了概率-非概率混合结构体系可靠性分析的区间概率模型。给出了混合结构体系失效模式的识别方法和体系失效概率的区间计算方法。实例分析表明中方法是有效和可行性。

On Model and Procedure for Computing Interval Probability of Failure of Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Hybrid Structural Systems

To our best knowledge, there is no paper in the open literature dealing with interval probability of failune of probabilistic and non probabilistic hybrid structural system. In the above mentioned case, available accurate data are insufficient and/or available information is incomplete. Our opinion is that, in such a case, interval probability rather than a single value of probability is better for reliability evalualion. Section l reviews briefly relevant information in our previous papers and combines them into the model needed for computing interval probability of failure of probabilistic and non probabilistic hybrid structural system. Sections 2 and 3 enumerate the significant modes of failure of such a hybrid structural system and then give an efficient procedure for computing the interval probability of failure of hybrid structural system. We like to point out the significant meaning of the computing procedure given in sections 2 and 3: because there is no need for computing joint probability of failure, not only the computational cost can be low but also the corresponding computational errors can be eliminated. Eqs.(30a) and (30b) are essentially exact, giving highly precise limits of the failure interal. Results of a numerical example in section 5 show preliminarily that the computing procedure proposed by us is feasible and efficient.