太子河流域水资源可持续利用评价及对策

针对太子河流域的特点，建立了以水资源条件、水资源开发利用程度及生态环境状况为具体考察对象的水资源可持续利用评价指标体系，并运用模糊模式识别模型进行实例定量评价。评价结果表明，太子河流域在1995年、2002年的水资源属于低可持续，2010年、2020年属于中可持续。2020年接近高可持续，该流域的水资源开发利用已接近本流域的承载力，进一步开发的潜力不大，这一结论与太子河流域的实际情况相符。最后，提出了太子河流域水资源可持续利用的对策建议。

Evaluation on Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources and Countermeasures in Taizi River Basin

Taizi river basin, with 1/3 of the average water resources in China, is suffering severely from deficient water resources. In this paper, a system of water resources sustainable development evaluation indicators is designed which based on water resources condition, the degree of exploitation, the utilization of water resources and status of entironments. 11 evaluation indicators are finally chosen in the paper. Fuzzy pattern recognition model, through which method and approach of sustainable utilization of water resources are illuminated, makes the sustainable utilization of water resources quantitative and maneuverable. The result shows that in Taizi river basin, the water resources utilization in1995 and 2002 is low sustainable; in 2010 and 2020 is moderate sustainable; in 2020 especially, is close to high sustainable. The paper draws a conclusion that water resources utilization has approached the bearing capacity in Taizi river basin, with little chance to exploit more. It is similar to the current situation. In the end, the countermeasures of sustainable utilization of water resource in Taizi river basin are given.