Classifying rotor‐layer wind to reduce offshore available power uncertainty

Rotor‐layer wind resource and turbine available power uncertainties prior to wind farm construction may contribute to significant increases in project risk and costs. Such uncertainties exist in part due to limited offshore wind measurements between 40 and 250 m and the lack of empirical methods to describe wind profiles that deviate from a priori, expected power law conditions. In this article, we introduce a novel wind profile classification algorithm that accounts for nonstandard, unexpected profiles that deviate from near power law conditions. Using this algorithm, offshore Doppler wind lidar measurements in the Mid‐Atlantic Bight are classified based on goodness‐of‐fit to several mathematical expressions and relative speed criteria. Results elucidate the limitations of using power law extrapolation methods to approximate average wind profile shape/shear conditions, as only approximately 18% of profiles fit well with this expression, while most consist of unexpected wind shear. Further, results demonstrate a relationship between classified profile variability and coastal meteorological features, including stability and offshore fetch. Power law profiles persist during unstable conditions and relatively weaker northeasterly flow from water (large fetch), whereas unexpected classified profiles are prevalent during stable conditions and stronger southwesterly flow from land (small fetch). Finally, the magnitude of the discrepancy between hub‐height wind speed and rotor equivalent wind speed available power estimates varies by classified wind‐profile type. During unexpected classified profiles, both a significant overprediction and underprediction of hub‐height wind available power is possible, illustrating the importance of accounting for site‐specific rotor‐layer wind shear when predicting available power.