考虑多因素的变压器过负荷性能评价模型

针对电网建设成本与高用电量需求的矛盾,以及变压器过负荷运行仅从热点温度建模、顶层油温模型考虑的现状,对影响过负荷性能的因素进行了研究,提出一种基于改进热点温度、设备故障率以及经济盈亏等多因素的变压器过负荷性能评价模型。基于修正热点温度约束及故障率约束生成满足安全性需求的过负荷运行预案;提出了概率损失概念,结合变压器经济盈亏性指标进行经济性评估;分析了变压器服役时间、计划运行时间等因素对短期过负荷运行的影响,得出了变压器过负荷性能综合评价及经济最优方案。研究结果表明,修正后的热点温度模型能更精确地表征变压器实际热点温度,多因素驱动的过负荷性能评价模型在短期停电检修场景下能给出运行综合工程决策,该决策对实际工况响应迅速,兼顾安全与经济性。

Evaluation model of transformer overload capacity considering multi-factors

Aiming at the problem of suspending power grid construction and solving the demand of high power consumption,and the problem of only considering the hot spot temperature or top oil temperature,a new model based on hot spot temperature-failure load probability-economy-transformer load capacity (HFE-TLC) was proposed.Based on the modified hot spot temperature model and the transformer failure probability model,the constraints of hot spot temperature and fault probability were determined.Fulfilled the above constraints,and combined the economic losses and economic benefits,the conception of probability loss was proposed to study the influence of the economy on the overload operation.The results indicate that the modified hot spot temperature model could more accurately characterize the actual hot spot temperature.By analyzing the influence of transformer service time and planned running time on short term overload operation,the model provides comprehensive suggestions for decision-making and proposes the theoretical support for the power grid risk assessment,which is driven by the quantitative analysis of multi-factors in the outage maintenance scene.