珠三角城市群城镇用地扩展时空格局及其驱动因素分析

本文围绕着"珠三角城市群城镇用地如何扩展"及"扩展驱动力是什么"两个核心问题展开,基于2000-2015年珠三角城市群土地利用和社会经济数据,利用扩展强度和扩展差异指数分析了珠三角城市群城镇土地扩展的时空特征,选用空间杜宾模型和重心转移模型分析了珠三角城市群城镇用地扩展驱动力。结果表明:珠三角城市群整体扩展强度呈下降趋势,扩展差异显著,以广州市、深圳市为核心呈现蔓延式扩展;GDP、距核心城市的城镇距离是珠三角城市群城镇用地扩展的主要驱动因素;核心城市在促进其他城市的城镇用地增长方面发挥着重要作用。

Spatio-temporal Patterns and Driving Forces of Urban Land Expansion in the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration

This paper focuses on two core issues:how to expand urban land use in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration and what is the driving force of expansion.Based on the land use and socio-economic data of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2015,the spatio-temporal characteristics of urban land expansion are analyzed by using expansion intensity and difference index,and the driving force of urban land expansion in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration is analyzed by using spatial Durbin model and center of gravity transfer model.The main conclusions are as follows:the overall expansion intensity of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration showed a downward trend,with significant differences in expansion,taking Guangzhou and Shenzhen as the core of spreading extension.GDP and urban distance from core cities are the main drivers of urban land expansion in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration.The core cities have a significant role in promoting the growth of urban land area in other cities.