改进的模糊综合评价法在渡槽风险评价中的应用

在传统的模糊综合评价方法中常利用主因素决定型算子、主因素突出型算子以及加权平均型算子通过模糊关系矩阵R将因素模糊向量A变换为等级模糊向量B,而传统的主因素型算子容易忽视各因素的综合影响以及重要性程度低但风险高的因素的影响,加权平均型算子不利于凸显不利因素对风险评价结果的决定性作用。所以本文在主因素突出型算子以及加权平均型算子的基础上加以改进得到两种新的Fuzzy合成算子:λ型Fuzzy合成算子和全优型Fuzzy合成算子。通过典型算例分析表明:λ型Fuzzy合成算子可以通过调整λ值改变对有利因素或不利因素的重视程度,而全优型Fuzzy合成算子可以避免有利因素对整体评价结果起到决定性影响,同时考虑到不利因素的决定性作用。两种算子在实际渡槽工程风险评估中的应用表明:在采用同一类模糊单值化的情况下,采用λ型Fuzzy合成算子和全优型Fuzzy合成算子得到的渡槽风险评价结果基本一致,两种新算子能够反映实际工程的安全特点,全面考虑实际工程的不利因子和有利因子对风险评价结果的影响和作用。

Application of improved fuzzy synthetic evaluation method to risk assessment of aqueduct

In the conventional fuzzy synthetic evaluation method，the principal factor determinant operator，the principal factor prominent operator and the weighted average operator are often used to transform the fuzzy vector A into the hierarchical fuzzy vector B through the fuzzy relational matrix Ｒ，but the comprehensive influences of all the factors as well as the influences from those factors with lower importance and higher risk are prone to be neglected by the conventional principal factor operators，while the weighted average operators are unfavorable to highlight the decisive effects from those adverse factors on the risk assessment result. Therefore，two new fuzzy composite arithmetic operators，i. e. λ-type fuzzy composite arithmetic operator and consistentfavorable fuzzy arithmetic operator，are obtained on the basis of improving the principal factor prominent operator and the weighted average operator. Through the relevant typical calculation case，it is indicated that the importance degrees of favorable factor or unfavorable factor can be changed by the λ-type fuzzy composite arithmetic operator through λvalue，while the decisive influence from the favorable factor on the overall assessment result can be avoided by the consistent-favorable fuzzy arithmetic operator under the consideration of the decisive effect from the unfavorable factor at the same time. The application of both the arithmetic operators to the risk assessment of an actual aqueduct shows that under the condition of the same fuzzy uniformization，the results from the risk assessment on the aqueduct obtained from both the arithmetic operators are basically coincided，thus both of the new arithmetic operators can reflect the safety characteristics of the actual project and fully take both the influence and effect from unfavorable and favorable factors of the actual project on the risk assessment result into account.