水利工程施工进度风险分析

为保证工程施工进度按计划进行,基于水利工程施工期特点,从子工作与风险因素两方面同时分析了影响进度的风险程度。通过构建WBS-RBS矩阵,对影响水利工程施工进度的风险因素及其敏感性进行识别,基于FAHP对各层风险因素做权重计算,依据风险度理论计算各子工作对应风险因素的风险度,对其进行求和并排序,找出对进度影响较大的子工作及其相应影响较大的风险因素,并结合关键工作和非关键工作分别制定不同的风险应对措施。以某水电站工程为例,基于上述方法得到影响该工程进度较大的子工作,结合风险度表,准确定位其相应的风险因素,并对其中影响较大的风险因素提出应对措施。据此,从纵向和横向同时控制,有针对性地采取风险应对措施,降低进度风险,保证工程按进度计划实施。

Risk analysis on construction progress of water conservancy project

Based on the characteristics of the construction period of water conservancy project，the risk degree that impacts the construction progress is analyzed from the aspects of both the sub-work and the risk factor，so as to ensure the implementation of the construction progress with the relevant schedule. Through establishing the matrix of WBS-RBS，the risk factors and their sensitivities those impact the construction progress of water conservancy project are identified. The weights of the risk factors on all the levels concerned are calculated with FAHP and the risk degree of the risk factor corresponding to each sub-work is calculated and then summed and sorted，from which the sub-work with larger impact on the construction progress and the relevant risk factor with larger impact are found out，while the countermeasures for different risks are respectively made as well in combination with the key works and the non-key works. By taking a hydropower project as the actual case，the sub-works with larger impacts on the construction progress are found out through the method mentioned above，and then the relevant risk factors are correctly defined， while the countermeasures for the risk factors with larger impacts thereinto are proposed as well. On the basis of this，the construction progress is longitudinally and transversely controlled with the targeted adoptions of the relevant countermeasures for all the risks，which makes the construction progress risk lower to the minimal，thus ensures the implementation of the project in accordance with the construction schedule concerned.