基于重要贡献度的中小型土石坝安全评价指标体系研究

针对中小型土石坝安全评价指标体系的研究相对缺乏的问题,采用文献统计方法分析了中小型土石坝的安全特性,总结了影响安全的主要因素,提出了"重要贡献度"遴选依据。采用德尔菲法结合灰色关联度分析法组合赋权,量化确定指标的重要贡献度。依据累积重要贡献度遴选对中小型土石坝安全评价影响大、贡献率高的优势因子,建立由两个层次,即7个一级准则、16个二级指标组成的评价指标体系。应用于实际工程案例分析,验证了本评价体系的合理性与可行性。结果表明:该方法避免了定性分析的主观随意性和定量分析的数据依赖性,构建的中小型土石坝安全评价指标体系精炼、针对性强,提高了综合安全评价的效率和可操作性,为量化和智能化的安全评价研究奠定了基础。

Important contribution degree-based study on safety evaluation index system of small and medium-sized earth rockfill dam

Aiming at the problem of that the study on the safety evaluation index system of small and medium sized earth rockfill dam is relatively deficient，the safety characteristics of the dam is analyzed with the literature statistical method，and then the major factors affecting safety are summarized and the selecting basis of important contribution degree ( ICD) is proposed. ICD is quantitatively determined by combinational weighting of combining Delphi method with grey relational analysis. In accordance with the cumulative important contribution degree，the dominant factors with large influence and high contribution rate for the safety evaluation of the small and medium sized earth rockfill dam are selected，and then an evaluation index system consisted of two levels，i. e. 7 first-degree criteria and 16 secondary-degree indexes is built up. The reasonability and feasibility of the evaluation index system are verified through its application to the analysis made on an actual engineering case. The result shows that method avoids the subjective randomness of qualitative analysis and the data dependence of the quantitative analysis，from which the safety evaluation index system established for the small and medium sized earth rockfill dam is refined with strong targetability，and then enhances the efficiency and operability of the comprehensive safety evaluation，which lays a basis for the study on the quantitative and intelligent safety evaluation concerned.