洪水风险快速分析技术方法研究进展

在防汛应急管理中,由于水情的复杂性和多变性,洪水风险分析方案存在不确定性和时变性,针对变化的水雨情数据对洪水风险要素进行快速分析是降低洪灾损失的有效手段。总结可用于洪水风险快速分析的各类技术与方法,通过梳理不同建模方式和风险要素识别模式,对洪水风险快速分析技术方法的原理展开了研究。在此基础上,对比分析了各类方法的优势和局限性,并对其技术特点和适用条件进行了深入探讨。最后,对洪水风险快速分析方法的应用前景进行了展望。分析认为:常用的水面高程推算法和水动力模型法仍有重要利用价值;基于元胞自动机思想的建模方法值得进一步研究和推广应用;基于遥感与GIS技术的淹没分析为大范围洪水灾情的快速评估提供了高效的技术手段。

Study progress on technique and method for rapid analysis of flood risk

In flood control and emergency management，due to the complexity and variability of water conditions，there are uncertainties and time-variation in flood risk analysis program. Ｒapid analysis of flood risk elements based on changing data is an effective way to reduce flood losses. All kinds of techniques and methods that can be applied to the rapid analysis of flood risk are summarized herein，and then the principles of them are studied through sorting out various modeling methods and identification modes of the essential risk factors. On the basis of this，the advantages and limitations of all kinds of the methods are comparatively analyzed，and furthermore，the technical characteristics and applicable conditions of them are deeply discussed. Finally， the applicationforegrounds of the methods for the rapid analysis of flood risk are prospected. It is considered from the analysis that the conventional water surface elevation calculation method and the method of hydrodynamic model still have important application values. The cellular automata theory-based modeling method is valuable to be further studied，popularized and applied，while the remote sensing and GIS techniques-based flood inundation analysis provides an efficient technical means for rapid assessment on large-range flood disaster as well.