适合云南地区风功率预测的数值天气预报系统研究

为了探寻适合云南地区风功率预测的数值天气预报系统，利用 GFS 资料为中尺度模式 WRF提供初始场和边界条件，评估了不同模式分辨率、参数化方案对云南地区风速模拟结果的影响。结果表明: 对于云南地区，3 km 分辨率风速模拟效果总体上优于 9 km 分辨率; 不同参数化方案对于风速模拟效果影响较大，其中第 3 套参数化方案( 长波辐射方案选用 Earth Held － Suarez，短波辐射方案选用 RRTMG，陆面过程选用 Noah，积云对流方案选用 Kain － Fritsch，行星边界层方案选用 YSU) 为云南地区的最优化方案，其模拟结果与观测资料均方根误差最小( 区域平均均方根误差约为 1. 67 m / s，17 个观测站点平均均方根误差约为 3. 30 m / s) 。进一步结合功率预测模型分析表明，较优的分辨率 －参数化组合方案可以提升云南地区风电场功率预测合格率达 9. 68% ～ 38. 71% 。研究成果对提高云南地区风电场功率预测水平、制定合理消纳风电计划具有一定的指导意义。

Study on numerical weather forecast system suitable for wind power prediction in Yunnan Province

In order to seek a numerical weather forecast system suitable for the wind power prediction in Yunnan Province，the initial field and boundary conditions for the weather research forecast ( WRF) mode are provided with the relevant GFS data，and then the influences from different model resolutions and parameterized schemes on the simulation result of the wind speed in Yunnan province are evaluated. The result shows that the simulation effect of the wind speed with the resolution of 3km is generally better than that of the resolution of 9km for Yunnan province，while the influences from different parameterized schemes on the simulation effect of wind speed are larger，in which the third set of parameterized schemes ( Earth Held-Suarez is selected for the long wave radiation scheme，RRTMG is selected for the short wave scheme，Noah is selected for the land-surface process，KainFritsch is selected for the cumulus convection scheme and YSU is selected for the scheme of the planetary boundary layer) is the optimal scheme for Yunnan Province，of which the root mean square error between the simulation result and the observed data is the smallest ( about RMSE = 1. 67 m/ s for regional mean square error and about 3. 30 m/ s for the mean square error of 17 observation stations) . It is indicated through the analysis further combined with the power prediction model that the better resolution and parameterization combined scheme can enhance the qualified rate of the wind power prediction for the wind farm in Yunnan Province by 9. 68% ～ 38. 71% . The study result has a certain guiding significance for enhancing the level of the wind power prediction for the wind farm in Yunnan Province and making a reasonable planning for the wind power accommodation concerned.