综合单价风险评估的研究及应用

工程量清单计价模式下,建筑市场的公开竞争促使施工企业把获取项目的精力放在了科学地运用决策分析上来.清单招标一般都采用单价合同,投标人要承担组价的全部风险,而出于种种原因,综合单价中的风险费用一直未得到投标人足够的重视.在全面分解综合单价的基础上,系统地分析了综合单价报价中的风险,构建起综合单价风险分析和评估数学模型,以随机抽样为主要手段,运用蒙特卡罗模拟技术进行风险分析模拟,得到综合单价风险分布概率,其结果有助于投标人对所报单价的决策.综合单价报价风险决策方法的研究对施工企业投标报价风险分析和评估具有积极的意义.

Study and Application of Risk Assessment of Consolidated Unit Price

Under the pricing model of Bill of Quantities（BOQ）t,he open competition of construction market encourages construction enterprises to pay more attention to the decision analysis of the project.The Bill of Quantities bidding usually adopts the fixed unit price contracta,nd the bidders must undertake the whole quotation risk.Because of various reasonst,he bidders pay less attention to the risk of unit price all the time.Based on the comprehensive decomposition of consolidated unit price,this paper systematically analyzes various price quotation risks in submission of tendera,nd constructs the mathematical model of consolidated unit price risk analysis and assessment,which is based on the theory of probability statistics,and uses Monte Carlo Simulation technique to process risk analysis and simulation.This paper obtains the risk distribution probability of consolidated unit price.The results will be beneficial to the bidders’ decision-making and will benefit construction enterprises.