匀速加速变化型灰色模型及应用

 根据某类事物的匀速2加速变化发展过程, 作出了匀速加速变化型灰色模型, 可以很好地拟合、预测匀速2加速变化、加速(减速)2匀速变化等多种发展过程。对原始数列用模型拟合计算得到残差, 根据残差的来源和特点, 先提取周期性确定项, 然后以时间序列分析的AR(n) 模型进行研究。将原模型与残差叠加, 求得残差修正模型并用于预测。最后, 结合链子崖工程实例, 计算分析表明原模型及残差修正模型能满足工程的需要, 具有较好的预测精度。

GREY MODEL FOR UNIFORM-ACCELERATED VARIATIONS AND ITS APPLICATION

Based on the uniform accelerated variations of a ceatain kind of things, the grey model for uniform accelerated variations is proposed, which is able to fit and predict well the courses of development, such as uniform accelerated change, acceterated (decelerated) uniform change etc. The Auto Regressive(AR(n)) Model of time series analysis method is used to study the test. Then appending the error to primitive model, the modified model is made, which is used for prediction. In the end, calculation and analysis of engineering examples indicate the primitive model and modified model are of good prediction precision and can meet the needs of engineering purposes.