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| 灰色模型GM(1,1)及其改进模型在短期特殊日电力负荷预测中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 李鹰,卢炎生,蔡碧野,黄道昌.灰色模型GM(1,1)及其改进模型在短期特殊日电力负荷预测中的应用[J].桂林工学院学报,2002,22(4):418-420. |
| 作者姓名： | 李鹰 卢炎生 蔡碧野 黄道昌 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 华中科技大学,计算机学院,湖北,武汉,430074;长沙电力学院,湖南,长沙,410077 2. 华中科技大学,计算机学院,湖北,武汉,430074 3. 长沙电力学院,湖南,长沙,410077 |
| 摘 要： | 讨论了灰色模型GM (1 ,1 )及其改进模型在短期电力负荷预测中的应用 ,采用ARI MA(p ,d ,q)模型与GM(1 ,1 )改进模型对特殊日电力负荷进行组合预测 ,提出了适合电网特殊日电力负荷预测的数据处理方法 ,提高了预测的精度 .准确度可达 95 %以上 ,解决了每日2 4点正点采样情况下预测精度较低的问题 . |
| 关 键 词： | 电力负荷 预测 灰色系统 GM(1 1)模型 组合预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-544X(2002)04-0418-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年4月3日 |
Application of GM(1,1) improved model in the electric power load forecasting |
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| LI Ying ,LU Yan sheng ,CAI Bi ye ,HUANG Dao chang.Application of GM(1,1) improved model in the electric power load forecasting[J].Journal of Guilin University of Technology,2002,22(4):418-420. | |
| Authors: | LI Ying LU Yan sheng CAI Bi ye HUANG Dao chang |
| Affiliation: | LI Ying 1,2,LU Yan sheng 1,CAI Bi ye 2,HUANG Dao chang 2 |
| Abstract: | Electric power load forecasting is one of the important tasks in electric power control and operation.According to different forecasting objectives,the usual methods include probability statistics methods,time sequence analysis and grey system , etc .The application of grey model GM(1,1) and its improved model in the electric power load forecasting are presented, GM(1,1) improved model and ARIMA( p,d,q )model are used to combinately forecast the special daily power load.The mothod which is suitable for the forecasting data is found.Thus the precision of forecasting has been improved,which is better than 95%,and the problen of low accurate forecast has been solved. |
| Keywords: | electric power load forecasting Grey system GM(1 1) model combination forecasting |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |