自回归估计模型在广西某高层建筑变形监测中的应用

采用先进的GPS应用技术——连续运行参考站系统（CORS），结合自回归模型最小二乘参数估计数学模型，通过对2年的CORS和高层建筑上的变形监测点的观测数据，分析广西某高层建筑的倾斜变形．已知有2年共24周期的观测数据，通过自回归估计获得第25—27周期的参数估值，并与实际观测的第25—27周期数据进行比对，估值和似然值较接近，第25周期数据基本一致，26和27周期数据分别有3mm和6mm的误差，但误差均在置信区间内．从而验证了自回归估计模型在该高层建筑变形监测中应用的可行性．

Applied Research of Autoregressive Estimate Model in the Deformation Monitoring of a High-rise Building in Guangxi

By adopting the advanced GPS technology of continuous operating reference station system（CORS） with autoregressive model least square parameter estimation model, this paper analyzes the deformation of a high-rise building in Guangxi through the observational data of the CORS and the deformation monitoring points of the building in two years. In connection with the first 24 months of observational data, the paper makes use of the autoregressive estimation and draws the conclusion that the estimation of 25th was close to the likelihood value, and the 26h and 27hhad the error of 3 mm and 6 mm, all within the confidence interval. The result verifies the applicability of the autoregressive estimate model in the deformation monitoring of the high-rise building.