基于元件故障率曲线的配电网可靠性评估和配电终端优化配置

为准确评估配电网的可靠性，提升配电终端优化配置的效率，提出一种基于浴盆形故障率函数的配电终端优化方法。运用Weibull分布对元件故障率浴盆曲线进行建模，用基于逆流传递和顺流归并的可靠性快速评估方法对配电网可靠性进行评估。在考虑元件故障率浴盆曲线的基础上，结合配电终端优化的特点，对配电终端的优化配置进行定性分析。此后，采用定量计算的方法，验证配电终端的可靠性是否满足要求。结果表明，该方法与遗传算法、动态规划、蚁群算法等优化方法相比，计算量较少。算例验证了该方法的正确性和有效性。

Reliability evaluation and distribution terminal optimal configuration of power distribution system based on bathtub curve of component failure rate

In order to accurately assess the reliability of distribution network and improve the efficiency of power distribution terminal optimization, this paper puts forward a kind of distribution terminal optimization method based on the tub shape of failure rate function. The Weibull distribution is applied in modelling bathtub curve of component failure rate, and based on the up-stream delivering and down-stream merging of reliability indices of distribution system reliability evaluation method, the reliability of the distribution network is evaluated. Considering the bathtub curve of component failure rate and according to the typical characteristics of distribution terminal optimization, the power distribution terminal configuration is optimized with qualitative analysis. Hereafter, the method of quantitative calculation is adopted to verify the reliability of the power distribution terminal whether meets the requirements. The results show that compared with other optimization methods, such as genetic algorithm, dynamic programming and ant colony algorithm, the method requires less amount of calculation. The correctness and validity of the method are verified by an aerial wire example. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51307071).