一种考虑冗余度的电压暂降工业过程中断概率评估方法

文章采用“设备级→环节级→过程级”三级评估方法,对电压暂降引起工业过程中断的概率与频次进行评估。根据设备电压耐受曲线及其不确定区域,建立设备电压暂降故障概率评估模型,为减小评估误差,提出了电压暂降规范化方法。根据环节各物理参数的过程抗扰时间与相关设备最小重启时间,准确量化环节各物理参数冗余度,并以此修正相关设备的故障概率。根据设备作用以及设备之间的连接方式确定环节的结构并计算环节中断概率。通过引入层次分析法中权重系数的计算方法,计算各环节权重系数,结合环节中断概率计算工业过程电压暂降中断概率。实例分析结果验证了所提模型的正确性和可行性。

A Method for estimating industrial process interruption probability caused by voltage sag considering redundancy

This paper adopts the three-level evaluation method of“equipment level→link level→process level”to evaluate the probability and frequency of industrial process interruption caused by voltage sag.According to the equipment voltage tolerance curve and its uncertain region,the equipment voltage sag fault probability evaluation model is established.In order to reduce the evaluation error,a voltage sag normalization method is proposed in this paper.According to the process immunity time of each physical parameter of the link and the minimum restart time of the corresponding equipment,the redundancy of each physical parameter of the link is accurately quantized,and the failure probability of the related equipment is corrected.The structure of the link is determined according to the function of the equipment and the connection between the equipments;as a result,the probability of interruption of the link is calculated.The weight coefficient of each link is calculated by introducing the calculation method of the weight coefficient in the analytic hierarchy process,and the industrial process voltage sag interruption probability is calculated by combining the link interruption probability.The example analysis results verify the correctness and feasibility of the proposed model.