风电功率概率预测研究综述

从风力发电被人们应用起,风电功率预测一直是研究的热议话题.由于风能自身的波动起伏、随机不定,导致风电功率具有一定的不确定性.目前风电功率大部分研究针对其点预测,但考虑风电功率固有的波动特性,其点预测的预测精度有限.然而准确可靠的风电功率预测对于电力系统运行是必不可少的.鉴于风力发电的不确定性,概率预测提供了一种独特的方案,即:提前估算和量化风电并网对系统运行潜在的影响以及风险.故风电功率概率预测将会成为风电功率预测的热门方向.文中归纳总结了风电功率概率预测已有的研究成果,并对风电功率概率预测未解决问题及将来发展趋势进行展望.

A Review of Wind Power Probabilistic Prediction

rom wind power have been applied to now,wind power prediction has been a hot research topic.Due to the volatility of wind energy,the wind power is uncertain.Currently,most research points based on wind power forecasting,However,considering the fluctuation characteristics of wind power,the prediction accuracy of wind power point prediction is limited.However accurate and reliable wind power prediction for power system operation is essential.Given the uncertainty of wind power,the probabilistic prediction of wind power provides a unique scheme to estimate and quantify the potential impact and risks of wind power connection on system operation in advance.Therefore,the probability of wind power forecasting wind power prediction will become a popular direction.This paper summarizes the probability of wind power forecasting existing research results,and the probability of wind power forecasting unresolved issues and future trends are discussed.