Age-Adjusted US Cancer Death Rate Predictions

The likelihood of developing cancer during one's lifetime is approximately one in two for men and one in three for women in the United States. Cancer is the second-leading cause of death and accounts for one in every four deaths. Evidence-based policy planning and decision making by cancer researchers and public health administrators are best accomplished with up-to-date age-adjusted site-specific cancer death rates. Because of the 3-year lag in reporting, forecasting methodology is employed here to estimate the current year rates based on complete observed death data up through three years prior to the current year. The authors expand the State Space Model (SSM) statistical methodology currently in use by the American Cancer Society (ACS) to predict age-adjusted cancer death rates for the current year. These predictions are compared with those from the previous Proc Forecast ACS method and results suggest the expanded SSM performs well.