Stochastic Control of Linear and Nonlinear Econometric Models: Some Computational Aspects

This paper considers the optimal control of small econometric models applying the OPTCON algorithm. OPTCON determines approximate numerical solutions to optimum control problems for nonlinear stochastic systems. These optimum control problems consist in minimizing a quadratic objective function for linear and nonlinear econometric models with additive and multiplicative (parameter) uncertainties. The algorithm was programmed in C# and in MATLAB and allows for stochastic control with open-loop and passive learning (open-loop feedback) information patterns. Here we compare the results of applying the OPTCON2 version of the algorithm to two macroeconomic models for Slovenia, the nonlinear model SLOVNL and the linear model SLOVL. The results for both models are similar, with open-loop feedback controls giving better results on average and less outliers than open-loop controls. The number of outliers is higher in the nonlinear case and especially under high parameter uncertainty.