基于云模型的降雨时空分布特性分析

本文将云模型引入到降雨量时空分布特性的研究中，并对广东省东江流域内57个1956-2000年的降雨量在时间和空间分布上的特性进行了研究，结果表明：（1）广东省东江流域降雨量在汛期的降雨最为稳定，枯季次之，而年降雨量的稳定性最小；（2）降雨量在空间上的分布比时间上分布更为离散、更具有不稳定性，且在1956-2000年间空间分布除极端（极大和极小）年份外总体上呈现出离散度逐渐减少、稳定性逐渐增强的趋势；（3）基于云模型的降雨时空分布特性分析可有效、直观地研究降雨量在时空上的变化特点，这为探求降雨等水文要素在时空分布上的特性提供了一种新的方法与途径，从而为保障水资源的合理利用和管理提供支持。

Analysis of characteristics of spatial-temporal precipitation distribution based on cloud model

The cloud model is proposed to research on spatial-temporal precipitation distribution and is applied to study on the Dongjiang river basin in Guangdong province by using the data from 57 weather stations which are located with the basin and it is available for the period of 1956-2000 in this study. The results show that: (1) Although the stability of annual precipitation in Dongjiang river basin in Guangdong province is good, the best stability are found with separately consideration in dry season and flood season. Precipitation distribution in spatiality is more dispersive and unstable than in temporality. (2)The decreasing trend in dispersibility and the increasing trend in stability of spatial precipitation distribution have been found during 1956-2000 except the extreme precipitation. (3) As being effectively and intuitively used in spatial-temporal precipitation distribution in this paper, the cloud model is a new way to analysis the hydrological elements of spatial-temporal distribution and can support the rational water use and management.