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| 考虑应急方案总体优势度的决策方法 | |
| 引用本文： | 郑晶 王应明 叶歆. 考虑应急方案总体优势度的决策方法[J]. 控制与决策, 2015, 30(7): 1239-1244 |
| 作者姓名： | 郑晶 王应明 叶歆 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 福州大学经济与管理学院，福州350116; 福建江夏学院电子信息科学学院，福州350108 2. 福州大学经济与管理学院,福州,350116 3. 福州市公安消防支队防火处,福州,350005 |
| 基金项目： | 国家杰出青年科学基金项目(70925004)；福建省交通运输厅科技发展项目(201319)；福建省教育厅科技项目(JB14122;JA14322)；福建江夏学院青年科研项目 |
| 摘 要： | 针对突发事件有效方案生成问题，从案例匹配和方案生成两个角度出发，提出一种基于证据推理的考虑总体优势度的应急决策方法。首先，依据检索方法得到源案例与目标案例的相似度，并获取应急方案的历史实施效果和当前实施效果；然后，通过证据推理合成应急证据，进而计算案例的总体优势度来确定最有效的案例；最后，通过一个煤矿事故应急决策案例验证了所提出方法的可行性和有效性。 |
| 关 键 词： | 应急决策 案例推理 证据推理 相似度 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-05-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014-09-10 |
Decision method for emergency alternative with considering total superiority degree |
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| ZHENG Jing WANG Ying-ming YE Xin. Decision method for emergency alternative with considering total superiority degree[J]. Control and Decision, 2015, 30(7): 1239-1244 | |
| Authors: | ZHENG Jing WANG Ying-ming YE Xin |
| Abstract: | To solve the problems of generating emergency alternative, an emergency decision method based on evidence reasoning with considering total superiority degree is developed from the case matching and case selecting. According to the retrieval method, the similarities between source case and historical case are calculated, and the historical and current implementation effects of alternative are obtained. Then, the evidence reasoning is used to combine emergency evidence. By the way, the total superiority degree of cases can be calculated, and the most effective alternative is obtained. Finally, a coal mine emergency decision-making case is given to illurstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. |
| Keywords: | emergency decision case-based reasoning evidence reasoning similarity |
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