非限能系统中考虑电价波动因素的随机生产模拟

针对非限能发电系统，结合电力市场下机组竞价上网的运行特点，在随机生产模拟过程中．增加了对机组容量分段报价策略以及市场清算电价MCP(Market Clearing Price)随机波动的考虑，建立了基于预测电价概率分布的随机生产模拟模型，该模型为制定符合电力市场运行规则的发电计划，燃料采购、运输、存贮计划等提供了决策参考，并将成为不同负荷水平下MCP概率分布预测精度和合理性的重要验证手段。在给出的具体算例中采用传统Baleriaux-Booth卷积、反卷积算法进行求解．算例表明该算法具有一定的应用价值。

Probabilistic production simulation for non-limited energy system considering the fluctuation of electricity price

Based on the probabilistic distribution forecast of power price,a probabilistic production simulation model for non-limited energy system under the deregulated environment is proposed,which considers the supply bidding strategies of units under different load levels and the probabilistic fluctuation of MCP(Market Clearing Price). It provides decision reference to the planning of power generation and fuel purchase,transport and storage,and becomes an important means to check the precision and rationality of MCP probabilistic distribution forecast on different load levels. A numerical case based on conventional Baleriaux-Booth algorithm is given to illustrate the application value of the model.