计及置信容量的光热电站储热容量优化配置

为探索光热电站的容量价值，文中基于光热电站的容量置信度和度电成本，提出一种光热电站集热面积和储热容量优化方法。文中建立光热电站发电效率模型和经济性模型，基于序贯蒙特卡洛方法计算发电系统可靠性，使用粒子群算法计算光热电站置信容量，研究太阳倍数和储热时长分别对光热电站容量置信度和度电成本的影响；并以容量置信度和度电成本作为优化目标，使用加权理想点法建立目标优化函数、熵权法确定指标权重值，对太阳倍数和储热时长进行优化。以西北某地区光热规划为例，使用该地区实际太阳辐照资源数据建立模型，发现随着太阳倍数和储热时长的增加，容量置信度单调递增，而度电成本呈先降后升的趋势，可优化得到约束条件下最佳太阳倍数和储热时长。

Optimal design for thermal energy storage capacity of CSP considering credible capacity

To explore the capacity value of a concentrating solar power (CSP) station,a method to optimize the thermal collection area and thermal storage capacity of a CSP station based on the credible capacity and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is proposed in this paper. Firstly,generating efficiency model and economical model of CSP station are established in this paper. Secondly,the generation reliability of power generation system is calculated based on sequential Monte-Carlo method,and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) is utilized to search the credible capacity of the CSP station. Tthen the influences of solar multiple and thermal storage time on capacity credibility and LCOE of CSP station are studied. With credible capacity and levelized cost of energy as the optimization goal,weighted ideal point solution and entropy weight method are utilized to create a single objective optimization function and to determine the index weight respectively. Taking a CSP planning in the northwest as an example,using the region''s real solar irradiation data,a model is established. The results show that the capacity credibility of CSP station increases monotonically with the increase of solar multiple and thermal storage time. At the same time,the levelized cost of energy decreases at the first stage and then increases at the second stage. The optimal solar multiple and thermal storage time is obtained under the constraints.