Breed of goat affects the prediction accuracy of milk coagulation properties using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy

The prediction of traditional goat milk coagulation properties (MCP) and curd firmness over time (CF_t) parameters via Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy can be of significant economic interest to the dairy industry and can contribute to the breeding objectives for the genetic improvement of dairy goat breeds. Therefore, the aims of this study were to (1) explore the variability of milk FTIR spectra from 4 goat breeds (Camosciata delle Alpi, Murciano-Granadina, Maltese, and Sarda), and to assess the possible discriminant power of milk FTIR spectra among breeds, (2) assess the viability to predict coagulation traits by using milk FTIR spectra, and (3) quantify the effect of the breed on the prediction accuracy of MCP and CF_t parameters. In total, 611 individual goat milk samples were used. Analysis of variance of measured MCP and CF_t parameters was carried out using a mixed model including the farm and pendulum as random factors, and breed, parity, and days in milk as fixed factors. Milk spectra for each goat were collected over the spectral range from wavenumber 5,011 to 925 × cm^?1. Discriminant analysis of principal components was used to assess the ability of FTIR spectra to identify breed of origin. A Bayesian model was used to calibrate equations for each coagulation trait. The accuracy of the model and the prediction equation was assessed by cross-validation (CRV; 80% training and 20% testing set) and stratified CRV (SCV; 3 breeds in the training set, one breed in the testing set) procedures. Prediction accuracy was assessed by using coefficient of determination of validation (R²_VAL), the root mean square error of validation (RMSE_VAL), and the ratio performance deviation. Moreover, measured and FTIR predicted traits were compared in the SCV procedure by assessing their least squares means for the breed effect, Pearson correlations, and variance heteroscedasticity. Results showed the feasibility of using FTIR spectra and multivariate analyses to correctly assign milk samples to their breeds of origin. The R²_VAL values obtained with the CRV procedure were moderate to high for the majority of coagulation traits, with RMSE_VAL and ratio performance deviation values increasing as the coagulation process progresses from rennet addition. Prediction accuracy obtained with the SCV were strongly influenced by the breed, presenting general low values restricting a practical application. In addition, the low Pearson correlation coefficients of Sarda breed for all the traits analyzed, and the heteroscedastic variances of Camosciata delle Alpi, Murciano-Granadina, and Maltese breeds, further indicated that it is fundamental to consider the differences existing among breeds for the prediction of milk coagulation traits.