一种计算航空反潜鱼雷发现概率的新方法

几种典型航空反潜鱼雷的搜索路径基本上是圆周形,其搜索区域可以看作是一个小圆,当潜艇发现自己被攻击后会进行规避,其规避范围也可以简化为圆形,这样可用圆目标面积覆盖法,建立动态情况下鱼雷对目标的发现概率模型,同时基于蒙特卡洛法,对鱼雷搜索过程作出假设,建立了鱼雷搜索模型,并对发现潜艇这个随机事件做了统计试验,两者所得结果相近。重点分析了由于投雷高度和速度引起的几个投雷散布误差,仿真结果表明,用圆目标面积履盖法求航空反潜鱼雷发现概率是合理的。

A New Method to Calculate Detecting Probability of Aerial Anti-Submarine Torpedo

The search routes of several typical aerial anti-submarine torpedoes are in circumference shape.The search region can be regarded as a small circle,and when submarine is under torpedo attack the scope it evades can also be simplified as a circle.Therefore,the method of circular acreage overlay can be used to establish a dynamic model of torpedo detecting probability.According to Monte Carlo method,this paper makes hypothesis to the torpedo search process and establishes a torpedo search model.The simulation results of the method of circular acreage overlay coincide with those from Monte Carlo statistical method.Some dispersion errors of torpedo deployment caused by different drop heights and speeds are focally analyzed.The simulation results show that it is reasonable to use the method of circular acreage overlay to calculate detecting probability of aerial anti-submarine torpedo.