A combination of differential equations and convolution in understanding the spread of an epidemic |
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| Authors: | Arm S. R. Srinivasa Rao Masayuki Kakehashi |
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| Affiliation: | (1) Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, 560 012 Bangalore, India;(2) Institute of Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Hiroshima University, 734 8551 Hiroshima, Japan |
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| Abstract: | Nonlinear dynamical method of projecting the transmission of an epidemic is accurate if the input parameters and initial value variables are reliable. Here, such a model is proposed for predicting an epidemic. A method to supplement two variables and two parameters for this proposed model is demonstrated through a robust statistical approach. The method described here worked well in case of three continuous distributions. Model predictions could be lower estimates due to under-reporting of disease cases. Anad hoc procedure with a technical note is provided in the appendix An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual conference of the Indian Society for Mathematical Modelling & Computer Simulation, Bangalore, November 14–15, 2002 |
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| Keywords: | Dynamical model likelihood convolution HIV |
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