Bayes小子样分析在武器性能评估中的应用

在武器性能评估中，需要大量的试验数据。在现场试验数据不足的情况下，考虑Bayes小子样分析方法，利用计算机进行仿真试验提供评估所需的数据。为避免评估中仿真试验数据“淹没”现场试验数据，通过合理考虑仿真系统的可信度，提出基于全概率思想的改进方法，在某新型水中兵器性能评估中的应用表明该方法具有较好的性质。

Bayesian Analyses in Small Sample Circumstance for Assessment of Weapon Performance

Abundant test data are required in assessment of weapon performance. When real test data are insufncient, Bayesian analyses in small sample circumstance should be considered and test data should be provided by simulations. An improved method based on complete probability was proposed by considering the confidence of simulation system reasonably to avoid the simulated test data obliterat?ing the real test data. The application to the assessment of performance of a certain new underwater weapon proved that the method has better property.