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| 基于可变模糊综合分析的冰凌预测模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 徐晶,冀鸿兰,张宝森,陈守煜,张傲妲.基于可变模糊综合分析的冰凌预测模型[J].水利水电科技进展,2011,31(3):6-8. |
| 作者姓名： | 徐晶 冀鸿兰 张宝森 陈守煜 张傲妲 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古呼和浩特,010018 2. 黄河水利委员会黄河水利科学研究院,河南郑州,450003 3. 大连理工大学土木水利学院,辽宁大连,116024 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，内蒙古自然科学基金，黄河水利科学研究院中央级公益性科研院所专项基金，内蒙古水利厅科技计划项目 |
| 摘 要： | 在分析凌汛成因影响因素的基础上,以可变模糊集理论为核心,采用二元比较法确定指标权重,结合统计相关分析确定预报因子相关程度,提出一种基于可变模糊综合分析的冰凌预测模型。将该模型应用于黄河内蒙古段开河日期的预测,结果表明该模型计算简便,对开河日期的预测具有较高的精度。 |
| 关 键 词： | 冰凌预报 开河日期 可变模糊集 二元比较 指标权重 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011/6/27 0:00:00 |
Ice forecast model based on variable fuzzy synthetic analysis |
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| XU Jing,JI Hong-lan,ZHANG Bao-sen,CHEN Shou-yu,ZHANG Ao-da.Ice forecast model based on variable fuzzy synthetic analysis[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2011,31(3):6-8. | |
| Authors: | XU Jing JI Hong-lan ZHANG Bao-sen CHEN Shou-yu ZHANG Ao-da |
| Affiliation: | XU Jing1,JI Hong-lan1,ZHANG Bao-sen2,CHEN Shou-yu3,ZHANG Ao-da1(1.School of Hydraulic & Civil Engineering,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Huhehot 010018,China,2.Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Yellow River Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou 450003,3.School of Civil & Hydraulic Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China) |
| Abstract: | Based on the analysis of various factors for ice floods,an ice forecast model with the variable fuzzy synthetic analysis as the core was proposed by using the binary comparison method to determine the index weight and the correlation degrees among various forecast factors according to the statistical correlation analysis.It was applied to the forecast of break-up date of rives in Inner Mongolia.The results show that the proposed model is simple in calculation and has higher forecast precision for break-up d... |
| Keywords: | ice forecast break-up date variable fuzzy set binary comparison index weight |
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