不同促销方式对消费者购买行为的影响

为了确定消费者购买行为与促销工具的使用之间的关系，应用Markov预测模型，通过引进寻求变化这一变量和不同促销工具（即前向促销和后向促销）对购买概率影响的参数变量，分析了在消费者两次连续的购买阶段0和阶段1中，消费者购买概率的变化，最终建立了消费者购买概率的模型．并以大宝品牌商品为例，通过建立的模型计算了两种促销方式对市场占有率的影响．得出：对于寻求变化的市场中，前向促销可以提高销售量．而后向促销可有效的降低成本，并且随着寻求变化的购买程度偏低，前向促销方式更趋于有效。

Influence of promotional vehicles on customer purchase behavior

In order to get the correlation between the custom er purchase behavior and promotional vehicle,Markov model is adopted,a parameter representing influence of variety seeking and promotion vehicle (front_loaded p romotion,rear_loaded promotion) on purchase probability is set up,customer purch ase probability in continue purchases of step 0 and step 1 is analyzed.Customer purchase probability model is established.Take Dabao brand commodity as an examp le,the influence of promotion vehicles on share of market is calculated by the m odel.It shows that the sales impact is higher for front_loaded promotions than f or rear_loaded promotions in variety seeking markets.The variation in the intens ity of variety seeking also affects the result of using various promotional vehi cles.