中国能源温室气体排放与可持续发展

全球气候变化对经济社会的可持续发展带来严重挑战。影响温室气体排放的因素主要有经济增长、人口、能源消费强度、能源结构等。预计中国2005～2020年GDP年均增长率为8.0%～8.6%。基准情景下,中国2050年能源需求总量达到66.19×108t标煤,人均能源消费量4.4t标煤,CO2排放量117.3×108t,能源消费弹性系数0.42,2020年CO2排放强度比2005年下降43%～48%;减排情景下,中国2050年能源消费量50.4×108t标煤,人均能源消费量3.5t标煤左右,CO2排放量70.7×108t,人均CO2排放量4.8t左右,能源消费弹性系数0.32,2020年CO2排放强度比2005年下降48%～52%,若能实现减排情景,则意味着中国已做到了低碳经济;而从可预见的技术条件以及清洁能源和可再生能源利用的规模来看,实现低碳情景难度很大。中国正处于工业化中期的发展阶段,能源需求增加是客观存在的,应力争转变经济增长方式,优化产业与产品结构,减少与控制高耗能产品出口,提高非化石能源比重和能源利用效率。发展中国家在应对全球气候变化行动中应制定中、短期目标与长期目标。中、短期目标即相对减排,中国政府制定的2020年CO2排放强度相对2005年降低40%～45%的约束性目标就属于相对减排;长期目标指的是当发展中国家实现工业化后,若全球技术发展迅猛,这时发展中国家温室气体的总量控制与减排才有可能做到。

China's Energy Greenhouse Gas Emission and Sustainable Development

Global climate change poses a great challenge to the development of economy and the human society.Factors affecting greenhouse gas emissions include economic growth,population,energy intensity and energy mix.China＇s GDP is expected to grow by 8.0%-8.6% from 2005 to 2020.Under the basic scenario,China＇s total energy demand will reach 66.19×10^8t of coal equivalent by 2050,equal to 4.4t of coal equivalent per capita.By that time,China＇s CO2 emission will have hit 117.3×10^8t and elastic coefficient of energy consumption will have reached 0.42.The country＇s CO2 emission intensity in 2020 will go down by 48%-52% over 2005.If the reduced emission scenario can be realized,it would mean that China would have established a low-carbon economy.However,based on foreseeable technical conditions and the scale of utilization of clean energy and renewable energy,we would say it would be very difficuh to achieve the low-carbon scenario.China is now in the middle of its industrialization process with a rising energy demand.China should try to change its pattern of developing economy,optimize its industry and product structures ,reduce and limit the export of energy-intensive products and raise the share of non-fossil fuels in its energy mix as well as its energy effficiency.Developing countries should set both short-and-medium-term objectives and long-term objectives in combating global climate change.Short-and-medium-term objectives are relative emission reduction objectives.China is striving towards the target of cutting its CO2 intensity by 40%-45% by 2020 over 2005. This binding target set by the Chinese government is just about relative emission reduction.When it comes to long-term objectives ,only after a developing country completes its industrialization process and only if technological development booms worldwide,can the greenhouse gas emission control and reduction objectives of a developing country be possibly achieved.