基于系统动力学的消防安全监管能力建设研究

为分析消防安全监管能力的影响因素和动态发展情况，根据系统管理理论解构了消防安全监管能力建设，构建了消防安全监管能力建设指标体系。从5个子系统间的交互、逻辑关系出发，绘制了消防安全监管能力因果关系图与存量流量图。在此基础上，结合调研与问卷调查，确定了模型中的变量方程与常量参数，并利用模拟仿真着重考察了不同投入比例对消防安全监管能力增长的影响效果。研究结果表明：消防安全监管能力建设系统动力学模型可预测消防安全监管能力的提升效果，反映系统中变量间的作用关系；在火灾调查、法规建设投入与监督组织、宣传教育、公众监督、人员能力和信息化科技投入均衡分配的投入方案下，消防安全监管能力增长效果最佳；仅加大单一分支的投入不利于实现建设目标。该模型较符合消防安全监管工作实际，有一定的适用性和应用价值。

Study on fire safety supervision capability construction based on system dynamics

In order to analyze the influencing factors and dynamic development of fire safety supervision capability, the fire safety supervision capability was deconstructed according to the theory of system management. The index system of fire safety supervision capability construction is constructed. Based on the interactive logical relationship between the five subsystems, a causal diagram and a stock flow chart of fire safety supervision capability was drawn. Based on this, combined with research and questionnaire survey, the variable equations and constant parameters in the model were obtained, and the effects of different input proportions on the growth of fire safety supervision capabilities were investigated using simulation. The research results showed that the system dynamics model of fire safety supervision capability could predict the improvement effect of fire safety supervision capability and fully reflect the relationship between variables in the system; invest in fire investigation, regulation construction and supervision organization, publicity and education, public supervision, personnel capability and information technology under the balanced investment plan, the increase of fire safety supervision capacity was the best; increasing the investment in a single branch was not conducive to achieving the construction objectives. The model was in line with the actual situation of fire supervision. And it had certain applicability and application value.