能源转型中的中国油气

“碳达峰、碳中和”目标下，探讨我国能源转型中油气在能源结构中的地位，首先要分析其近年发展趋势。近10年，我国新增石油地质储量和经济可采储量呈变小趋势，导致储量替换率多年小于1；2015—2017年石油年产量呈降势，目前仍低于2×10⁸t。深入分析储量未开发率发现，经济可采储量约10%~12%在现有条件下不可采，真实储产比已降到稳产阈值10以下。目前，我国天然气虽处于增长曲线平台期前半部，增势趋于平缓，但也存在部分经济可采储量实际不可采的问题。如果不及时实现产区/领域的战略性接替，使探明可采储量有明显提高，我国未来近中期有可能出现先石油、后天然气不能稳产，甚至较快速下降的风险。依据“双碳”指标约束下能源需求及其构成预测成果，分析到21世纪中期的油气需求数量及其在能源构成中占比。天然气在能源转型中起过渡和桥梁作用，是非化石能源的最佳伙伴。为此，必须加强油气勘探，对新区新领域实施第三次战略展开。

The perspective of China’s oil and gas in the Energy Transition

To discuss the status of China’s oil and gas in the energy structure during the energy transition under the goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality”, firstly its development trend in recent years is analyzed. Judging from the changes in reserves in the past 10 years, the newly added petroleum geological reserves and economically recoverable reserves have a tendency to become smaller. This has led to a reserve replacement factor of less than 1 for many years, which in turn caused annual oil production to decline to less than 200 million tons from 2015. Further analysis of the undeveloped rate of reserves reveals that about 10%-12% of the economically recoverable reserves on the reserve table are actually unrecoverable under current conditions. Correspondingly, the true reserve-to-production ratio has also fallen below the stable production threshold of 10. China’s natural gas is still on the first half of the growth curve, and the growth trend is becoming gentle, the problem that some economically recoverable reserves are actually unrecoverable still exists. In short, the research on the status of oil and gas shows that if the strategic is not achieved in time to increase the proven recoverable reserves, in the near and mid-term future, China’s oil production, and then natural gas production will not be stable, or even possibly decline rapidly. Based on the energy demands and its composition forecasts under the constraints of carbon emission reduction, the authors analyze the demand of oil and gas at the middle of this century. Being the best partner of non-fossil energy natural gas plays a transitional and bridge role in the energy transition. In order to meet this demand, it is necessary to strengthen oil and gas exploration and launch the third strategic shift to open up new areas and new realms.