基于LEAP模型的广州交通领域能耗及空气污染物排放分析

基于长期能源替代规划系统(LEAP)模型,结合情景分析法,模拟广州交通领域未来的能耗及CO、HC、NOx、PM2.5、SO2等主要空气污染物排放趋势,分析广州交通领域的节能及空气污染物排放控制策略.结果表明:综合情景下,到2035年,广州交通领域将较基准情景节能23.06％,CO、HC、NOx、PM2.5、SO2分别减...

Analysis of Energy Consumption and Air Pollutant Emission in Guangzhou Transportation Field Based on LEAP Model

Based on Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model and scenario analysis method, the future energy consumption and emission trends of major air pollutants such as CO, HC, NO_x, PM_2.5 and SO₂ in the transportation field of Guangzhou were simulated this paper, and the energy saving and air pollutant emission control strategies in Guangzhou transportation field were analyzed. The results showed as follows: under the comprehensive scenario, by 2035, Guangzhou's transportation sector will save 23.06% energy consumption compared with the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, and the emissions of CO, HC, NO_x, PM_2.5 and SO₂ decreased by 30.05%, 28.31%, 27.86%, 23.77% and 16.33% respectively; among the sub scenarios, the energy structure optimization scenario has the largest contribution to energy saving and emissions reduction; in terms of transport types, road freight, private transport, highway passenger transport, waterway freight transport and air passenger transport contribute more to energy saving and emissions reduction; in order to realize the control of urban traffic energy consumption and pollutant emissions, it is necessary to develop public transportation, promote the development of railway transportation and waterway transportation, partially divert the growth of traffic demand of private transportation, highway transportation and air transportation, and promote the cleanliness of energy structure and the energy efficiency.