流域突发水污染溯源及综合治理方法研究

通过对已有研究成果的综合分析，提出了一种新的流域突发水污染溯源研究以及相应的综合治理方法。为解决流域突发水污染事件的溯源问题，建立了流域突发水污染溯源模型。建立相应的模型框架，通过贝叶斯法也就是客观经验法获取大量径流量等观测历史数据后，根据这些观测数据为基础获得先验分布，采用了均匀分布类型。用监测数据构建似然函数，利用采样对分布概率后验密度进行获取，采样方式选择AM-MCMC。完成模型构建，选取研究对象为某突发水污染的河段流域对其进行验证。实验结果表明，该设计方法在有限迭代时间内，可有效缩减水污染溯源的定位范围，溯源相对误差不超过0.015，具有较高的溯源精度，可用于大范围、大规模水污染溯源。建议采取综合治理措施，包括健全流域水污染突发事件应急预案和制度，加强各地区的规划和建设，推进生态补偿机制的建设。

Research on source traceability and comprehensive treatment methods of sudden water pollution in the River Basin

Through a comprehensive analysis of the existing research results，a new research on the traceability of sudden water pollution in the river basin and corresponding comprehensive treatment methods were proposed.In order to solve the problem of tracing the source of sudden water pollution incidents in the river basin，a tracing model of sudden water pollution in the river basin was established.The corresponding model framework was established，after obtaining a large amount of historical data of runoff and other observations through Bayesian method，that was，objective empirical method，the prior distribution was obtained based on these observational data，and the uniform distribution type was adopted.The likelihood function was constructed by monitoring data，and the posterior density of the distribution probability was obtained by sampling，and AM-MCMC was selected as the sampling method.Completed the model construction and select the research object as a river basin with sudden water pollution to verify it.Experimental results showed that the design method could effectively reduce the location range of water pollution traceability within a limited iteration time，and the relative error of traceability did not exceed 0.015.It had high traceability accuracy and can be used for large-scale and large-scale water pollution traceability.It was recommended to adopt comprehensive treatment measures，including improving emergency plans and systems for water pollution emergencies in the river basin，strengthening planning and construction in various regions，and promoting the construction of ecological compensation mechanisms.