逐步回归分析中国煤质特性与其液化特性关系

以中国宜于液化煤种的12种煤质特性和其液化试验结果为基础，采用相关性分析、多元线性回归和逐步回归分析相结合的方法，借助SPSS数学统计软件建立了液化特性与其煤质特性的回归方程，系统地研究了煤种液化特性与其煤质特性的关系。结果表明：煤的不同液化特性(如转化率、油产率)与其12种煤质特性的相关性不完全一致；煤转化率主要受惰质组含量及最大镜质体反射率(Rmax)的影响；水产率主要受O/C原子比的影响；气产率主要受C含量、O含量及镜质组含量的影响；沥青质产率主要受H/C原子比及Rmax的影响；氢耗主要受N含量及O含量的影响；油产率则是C含量、N含量、O含量、H/C原子比、O/C原子比、镜质组含量、惰质组含量及Rmax等8种煤质特性综合作用的结果。对比分析发现，回归计算值与试验值的平均绝对误差不超过3.28%；回归方程具有较高的实用性，适用于液化煤种的初步评价和筛选。

Stepwise Regression Analysis of Chinese Coal Characteristics and Its Liquefaction Properties

12 kinds of characteristics of Chinese coal suitable for liquefaction and its liquefaction properties were discussed in this paper. The relationship between coal characteristics and its liquefaction properties were studied by the methods of correlation analysis, multiple linear regression and stepwise regression analysis. It was found that the correlation between the liquefaction characteristics (such as conversion rate, oil yield) and the properties of 12 kinds of coal was not completely consistent. The regression equations of liquefaction properties and coal characteristics were established via SPSS software. It was found that the conversion rate mainly depends on the content of inertinite and Rmax. The water yield was mainly affected by the ratio of O/C. The gas yield was mainly affected by the contents of carbon, oxygen and vitrinite. The asphaltene yield is mainly affected by the ratio of H/C and Rmax. The hydrogen consumption was dominated by the contents of nitrogen and oxygen. The oil yield relied on the comprehensive effect of 8 kinds of coal characteristics, such as the contents of carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, vitrinite and inertinite, the ratios of H/C and O/C. By comparison, it was found that the average absolute errors between the calculated values of the regression equations and the experimental results were less than 3.28%. Therefore, the regression equations have adequate practicability, and can be used to evaluate and screen the coals which are suitable for liquefaction.