2001~2018年三江源地表水动态变化及驱动力分析

当前很多研究利用遥感影像关注地表水动态变化情况，但不同算法得到的变化情况尚待进一步分析。基于GEE平台，以三江源为例，利用JRC全球地表水产品对三江源2001~2018年的地表水体面积进行动态变化分析，并结合大气再分析产品ERA5和PERSIANN-CDR进行驱动力分析。结果表明：2001~2018年期间，三江源常年性水体面积从6 403.61 km²增加至7 473.09 km²，主要增加部分分布于长江源区；三江源常年性水体面积变化和年降水量有显著正相关关系，常年性水体面积变化和气温没有显著相关关系；卓乃湖自2011年起溃坝，引起自身萎缩，导致其下游的盐湖扩张严重，有溃坝的风险。

Analysis on the Dynamic Changes and Driving Forces of Surface Water in the Three-River Headwater Region from 2001 to 2018

Many current studies use remote sensing images to pay attention to the dynamic changes of surface water， but the changes obtained by different algorithms need to be further analyzed. Based on the GEE platform， taking Three River Headwater（TRH） as an example， using JRC global surface aquatic products to analyze the dynamic change of the surface water area of TRH from 2001 to 2018， and combining the atmospheric reanalysis products ERA5 and PERSIANN-CDR for driving force analysis. The results show that during the period 2001-2018， the permanent water area of the TRH increased from 6 403.61 km² to 7 473.09 km²， and the increase was mainly distributed in the source area of the Yangtze River； the change of the permanent water area of the TRH has a significant positive correlation with the annual precipitation. There is no significant direct correlation between changes in the area of water bodies and temperature； Zhuonai Lake has been dam-breaking since 2011， causing its own shrinkage， leading to serious expansion of the Salt Lake downstream and the risk of dam-breaking.